Hey Mike (LAFCPUG news letter)

Hey Mike,
Just a quick comment (from a Mac user from the begining) or 2 on the Intel subject:

Well Apple finally has done it to me for the LAST TIME.
They're building a Rock alright (Rosetta stone) Just like they supported their other so called upgrades (or downgrades however you view them). History is a great teacher when it comes to Apple.
This wasn't all Job's work, they have a Board of Directors that direct the management team. Billy Boy (Gates is on that Board, along with other Money gauging none Apple cultists).
So, it was just a matter of time for this to occur.

The Answer for me is going to be to start to build an AMD system slowly, starting now, so the financial impact wont be ALL AT ONCE. After all, those systems have always been upgradeable without any rocks to get in your way.
Software you ask? well on the other platforms upgrades have not, to my knowledge, been any big deal, no emulation stuff that will make your $8 -10,000+ system drag a rock on it's back.
Apple, whether on principle or factual has done it to me at least, for the last time. Great platform but not the only one.
So, I thank Apple for this announcement now and not waiting till the very last secret minute (as they usually do) to let me know what they're doing so I can build a system slowly that will have less financial impact for me.

You're comment on IBM & Motorola, to me is bogus. These companies, with the proper incentives will do anything to make money for their stock holders, so I wonder what kind of egotistical demands the now VERY RICH Job's made of them.

Oh... By the way, have you researched what's coming out of China?
They are very aggressive and will gear up and have the capabilities to produce anything you want in order to grab market, even loosing money in the beginning as they?re interested in the long haul.

So this crap that Intel (and Gates+) is the only place that Apple can go is just that, crap.

You see if you tell a lie enough, people will believe it. I'm sure all know where that quote comes from.

Well, I'm sure there will be a deluge of folks that will disagree with me, but all I ask of them, would be to go to a nice quite place alone and THINK (DIFFERENTLY) about all this stuff before they accept this nonsense spilling out from Apples lips. There is a grand money plan at work here that doesn't REALLY care about the loyalists by rather is counting on what loyalists have done in the past ... PAY. That what they count on. NO MORE FOR ME!!

Thanks for listing, and read your statement below.

A. Well, according to Steve Jobs, IBM had reached, or stalled or gave up,(not really sure here) on its current G5 PPC technology and that because of this, Apple had little choice but to go with another chip maker (in thiscase Intel) in order to continue building ?insanely great? Macs well intothe future. Mr. Jobs said that Intel had a much better ?roadmap? and a coollooking logo.


Q. Hey Mike. What is this ?Rosetta? I keep hearing about?
A. That is emulation software that allows you to run native PPC apps on a
MacIntel computer. It?s a sort of compatibility layer that will allow you to
run, say.. Final Cut Pro 5 on a Mac running Intel processors. Mr. Jobs says
this will be supported ?well into the future.?
Rosetta was named after the Rosetta Stone, a rock dated back to 196 BC with
writing on it in 2 languages (Egyptian and Greek), using three scripts
(hieroglyphic, demotic and Greek). Coincidentally both the Apple and Intel
?logos? can be found in the demotic section and were deciphered by
Jean-François Champollion in 1822 to mean ?Juicy and Regular.?



Post Edited (06-09-05 06:48)

Of course, the grass is always greener on the other side.

For 99% of mac users, what processor is inside their computer is utterly irrelevent. For 90% of developers, it's irellevent.

The ONLY real issue that Apple and it's users have is the implementation of new processors. By announcing a year early and getting dev machines out there, Apple will minimise transition issues. Rosetta is not the rock you think it is, but good technology that will help, not hinder users. The only other issue is the so called "Osbourne" effect, where back in the early days of computing, the Osbourne 1 was the first "luggable" (portable) computer. Osbourne announced there would be an Osbourne 2 (a much superior computer), and they instantly stopped selling Osbourne 1! Customers sensibly didn't want to buy the old model because the new one looked so much better, but the Osbourne 2 was vapourware and Osbourne needed continuing sales of Osbourne 1 to fund it's development. Never heard of Osbourne? Exactly - they went out of business soon after that fateful announcement.

Will this happen to Apple? Will they suffer an Osbourne effect? Most surely they will. Their sales will hurt until they get a new laptop out and a new top end mac. Then sales will pick up, but Apple have enough cash in the bank to see through this drought, especially with iPods selling the way they are.

In the meantime, a top end G5 is still a stonkingly good computer, and the laptops are still the nicest laptops out there. Sure, they're not the fastest things in silicon, but they're more than good enough for 90% of tasks.

And remember, after this, due to the from the start cross platformness of the basic OS X, if another architecture migration is needed, Apple will have all the technology in place to make it happen, whereas the Windows competition will have a much harder time of it.

Graeme



Post Edited (06-09-05 14:55)

[www.nattress.com] - Plugins for FCP-X

Your points are well taken, and apperciated, but again, after spending big bucks, there are users that believed there software investments can be upgraded on the same system they spent big bucks on in the future WITHOUT a re-investment in equipment.
Carrying a stone on your back to make that happen should not be forced on those who helped Apple profit.
As far as Windows machines, I never mentioned a Windows OS, there are others without the problems of Windows, and getting better all the time.
So what happands to windows system is of little concern and should not be used to justify what Apple seems to have done here.

I'm sorry, there are MANY other alternatives available to Apple other then the path they've chosen. Wait and see the outcome of what they've done, That cash you mention can dry up very quickly, like the reserve the gov. had.

This is arrogance not customer consideration.

"there are users that believed there software investments can be upgraded on the same system they spent big bucks on in the future WITHOUT a re-investment in equipment. "

I guess if you plan to stay with FCP HD for 5 years you might have a point, but for those of us - mindless robots - who purchase every Apple Pro Video upgrade
like children in a candy store, it is pointless. You can also choose to stay with your last PPC Mac for the next 5 years as well. No one is forcing you to change anything.

FCP 6 willl be out by the time we see an Intel Mac Tower in 2007 (most likely) and whether Apple can make PPC software run on Rosetta is several months away. Surely Apple will owners of the older and slower PPC G5's to run their products until such time it is proven that either this WAS a smart more by Apple or it wasn't.

Time alone will tell that story.

"there are MANY other alternatives available to Apple other then the path they've chosen"

Please tell us OH wise ONE, what would you have done if you were running Apple.

I personally have not purchased a system from Apple since 2002 and made a decision to wait until the dual 3.0 GHZ Macs hit. Apparently it is not going to happen so now I have a decision to make. Doesn't mean I am looking elsewhere.

As one of those who was about to buy a new Dual G5, I'm a victim of the "Osbourne" effect.

As a preface, I think Apple made the decision for the long term survival of the Mac when Jobs looked at PPC roadmap. Giving developers a 1-2 year timeline helps them through the programing transition and work out kinks.

What Jobs hasn't done is show the developers/consumers how Apple will handle the "Osbourne" effect. What can Apple do to motivate me, the buyer, to buy their PPC computers over the next two years?

My single greatest concern (as you might have read elsewhere) is NOT that current PPC are useless, they're great, it's that the lifespan of all my PPC Macs have been shortened (including any I buy in the next two years).

Jobs keynotes are always, in part, a sales pitch. This time I'm not sold that the developers (nor even Apple) will make concurrent PPC and Intel versions that far into the future. With the decline in Mac sales over the next two years, the changeover as the new hardware comes out, will result in a huge buying upsurge as people replace their older Macs (having waited an extra year or two on purchasing a new one), lessening the need to maintain PPC code.

Apple could do a few things to counter the "Osbourne" effect but they haven't. They could cut prices on the current models, that would result in greater sales but probably not greater profits (and likely force developers to maintain PPC code longer with more newer PPC Macs hanging on longer). They could commit to a some sort of trade up discount when high end MacIntels hit the street. That might cut profits (only affecting those who buy G5s today forward) but not that much if it also means more incentive/security in buying now instead of holding off AND it would get those buyers to move from PPC to Intel sooner. I'm sure there other things they could do but . . . alas none of that is happening.

In any case I HAVE TO buy a new Mac for my business in the next couple of weeks. I will spend less though since I don't expect this purchase to have a long viable life using software coming out in 2007 (between 18-30 months) and beyond. In other words, I think some developers MAY start dropping PPC support during calendar year 2007 or by early 2008. People can claim otherwise but do I believe it? . . no . . . it's the Osbourne effect. Many people probably feel the same way. That's why they hold of their purchases. SOMEONE (developers/Apple) should do something to counter the "Osbourne" effect. This is where Jobs keynote (sales pitch) fails.

I'm betting that FCP will already run on the mactels, since every version of OSX has been made to run on them from the beginning. Surely there is a dual devlopment in place for FCP.

So when you upgrade you can choose to buy new equipment or not. The double binary system sounds like it will mean you get to choose.

Please Reread my post.
It gives my opinion (without sarcasm) of other alternatives Apple has.

And buy the way, you will be forking out some big bucks to run FC6 if this happens unless you want to drag a stone.

But yes you are correct, Apple is giving SW companies a year to get ready, but that still means your system you buy today will need replacing, not by choice but by necessity.

The announcement had to be released because they needed to tell SW companies to get ready NOT the users.

So lets see what happens.

Not sure what all the angst is here --

Your G-5's working fine now - the top end models are making profesional quality TV programs and movies every day - that wont' change a year from now or two years from now.

How many of you have Classic on your OS 10 now? It's an emulator! There's a different chip in that box than the one you originally ran those programs. The new "foreign" chip (power pc) runs those old programs just fine for the most part...and companies for a good long time delivered programs that ran on both - it's just good business to do that with a large installed base of users.

The new machines, we're promised, will do the same thing for programs that once ran just on G-5's and PowerPC Chips - better actually according to some Apple engineers I spoke with.

If everyone indeed wants faster better Macs each year - and IBM isn't delivering the chips...who cares who makes them? This will not make every program on your shelf obsolete...and as we all upgrade to faster, better shinier programs....the old "classic" ones eventually end up collecting dust - does anyone really ache to run FCP 1 and 2?

Right now the G-5 dual processor is making a lot of money for my company - the investment has paid dividends well beyond my wildest dreams.

Most folks buy a new car every few years....they don't complain if it has a new engine.

The mac is just a way to drive your production company's profits....

Andy,
You make a lot of good points.
I certinley hope your correct, we'll just have to wait and see.

I'm just not as optomistic as you are here. Any time I here any kind of a "tel system I run like heck.

But your points are well taken

Hey Mike,


Do you think we could create a separate forum for the whiners to bitch and complain? Quotes like "Well Apple finally has done it to me for the LAST TIME." Yea their really out to get you, Spaceman. Take some Prozac, chill and edit. Seems to me that the ones that are truly making a success at editing, are editing. Not wasting peoples time with statements of doom and gloom!!!

Your probably right.

Spaceman, could tell us where did you get the info that Bill Gates is on Apple's Board Of Directors?

Check it out I thing you're so wrong among other things....

Sorry,
Gates was on the board but is not now, however he is a MAJOR stockholder with influence.

You don't have to agree with me, it's just my opinion.

This discussion really doesn't belong on this great board, but the mention of an "tel anything in the Mac world gets my blood boiling.

This discussion should be elseware.

Guys

Stop hurling insults at Spaceman. He has valid points and concerns just like you do and insults just take up space. So be cool. These are emotional times for many and we are all entitled to vent every so often.

My 2 cents
There is every indication that FCP 6 or whatever it will be in 2007 will support both PPC and Intel. At least that is what they are saying. "Years to come" means to me more than 2 years from now.

Rosetta (as far as I understand) has nothing to do with our future as editors unless we buy a MacIntel and run FCP 5 on it. I'd feel fine about buying a G5 in early 2006 and getting 3 years out of it. Rosetta comes into play with third party apps and drivers as I understand it. I mean "old" third party apps and drivers

BTW all, if you go back and read the newsletter carefully you should be able to tell that it was my attempt to lighten up the discussion on what the future holds for us all. It was supposed to be funny but judging from the dozens of emails I have received on the topic, very few "got" it. Many read it as "The Gospel according to Horton." Please, you all know me fairly well. I'm a storyteller and not Adam Wilt. I dont know crap about what is inside my Mac so take anything I say about this subject with a BIG grain of salt.

Bottom line is none of know what the future holds except to believe what we have been told about that future. Just seems to me this whole thing is not that big a deal. No wait, it IS a big deal for sure, but is it any bigger than the OS9 to OSX transition?

Every upgrade breaks something. All we can do like we always have done and always will do, is hope the companies making all this stuff we need and use hang around and support us. But then, if they dont, someone else will come along and take their place. Been this way since 1984



Michael Horton
-------------------

You are right Michael. I didn't mean to open a can of worms and apologize to everyone including spaceman. These are uncertain times to be sure...let's just all try and optimistic (but it's always smart to know your options as well)


Peace,


Mike Stathopoulos

Mike,
No apology needed.

Mike H. put's things in perspective once again, Thanks Mike.

We all have opinions and come from different experiences.

But what's wrong here is putting this discussion on this great board and for that, I'm sorry.

Mike H. you certainly have my blessings if you remove it before it get crazy.

Thanks all.

No no. This thread belongs here as much as any.

Now that we have had a few days to drink all this in it's in everyones best interest to throw out what they've learned so all might benefit. Speculation is a bit of a waste of time but lets face it, it's fun and human nature to do so.

And it will be fun to search this forum 3 years from now

:-)



Michael Horton
-------------------

Andy (and others) I thought the simple example below expresses my concerns best.

My Dual 800 G4 purchased in 2001, rund FCP5 just fine 4 years after I bought it, with at least a year or longer, it'll be running what should remain the current version of FCP, through much 2006 (expecting FCP 6 anywhere from mind 2006 to early 2007). That's 5 years of current version compatibility. FCP5, DVSP4, SoundtrackPro, LiveType2, Compressor2 ALL run on my Dual 800 and Motion2 would only require a relatively inexpensive graphics card upgrade. Slow? Yes in some instances but they all run.

I DO NOT THINK a Dual G5 purchased today, will be able to run the then current version of FCP in 2010 (5 year period). Again just my hunch, but this is what I mean by a newly purchased G5 having a shorter compatible life span.

I simply don't think developers, including Apple, will be making PPC apps (especially ones needing altivec) in 2010.

My hunch PPC support MAY drop as early as 2008, with the last PPCs being sold in late 2006 or early 2007 and in LOW numbers as most people hold off for the high end MacIntel systems.

Dual 800 runs current apps from 2001-2006 (5 years).
Dual G5 purchased in 2005 runs current apps to 2008 (3 years).
Those who purchased Dual G5s in 2003 will get 5 years too, but NOT someone (like me) buying now.

All speculation of course but I just don't think devleopers want to support two different chip sets with each upgrade.

Buying an Intel Mac straight away will actually be a harder transition than keeping PPC, as any new mac app will be "dual compiled" and hence run natively on both, but old apps might not run best on Intel Mac.

That said, if you computer works today editing, and makes money today editing, it will still be making money editing when the Intel Macs are on sale.

I do worry about the Osbourne effect, but if Apple sensibly keep producing killer G5 machines, drop the prices a bit, and just keep bringing the Intel Macs on as soon as possible they'll be fine. Remember the sales drought they had when the G4s were getting old, and the G5's had not arrived yet. That will probably be more painful for Apple than the new effect of announcing Intels in Mac.

Graeme



[www.nattress.com] - Plugins for FCP-X

if you haven't actually seen Steve Jobs Keynote - it may help ease some of the concern

He gets to the intel stuff about 23:05 into the stream - you can skip the beginning - it's just an ode to Mac's greatness - which most of us know

[www.apple.com]

Graeme Nattress wrote:

> Buying an Intel Mac straight away will actually be a harder
> transition than keeping PPC, as any new mac app will be "dual
> compiled" and hence run natively on both, but old apps might
> not run best on Intel Mac.

I was thinking that with this much lead time and especially Apple being "in control" of FCP Studio that those apps would make the transition most easily and most quickly.

If you consider the number of folks who edit on laptops these days and fast laptops being one of the reasons Apple is switching to Intel, that FCP for Intel could come out next year with the new laptops in order to make them an attractive purchase.

>
> That said, if you computer works today editing, and makes money
> today editing, it will still be making money editing when the
> Intel Macs are on sale.

At least when the first desktops go on sale in mid 2007 (hey it's just a guess).


>
> I do worry about the Osbourne effect, but if Apple sensibly
> keep producing killer G5 machines,

But how can they do this? Is IBM really going to offer anything much outside of small speed bumps? Apple may add things like a BluRay burner but outside of things like that and graphics cards, I just can't evnision much new.

> drop the prices a bit, and

This is key. I think they should have droped the prices $300 across the board. If that would have hurt too much the other nifty marketing trick would be a $500 discount on the new MacIntel desktops for those who buy a Dual G5 desktop after WWDC. That wouldn't cost them anything up front. The discount would only be available to those buying during the current "risk" period and it might spur the changeover to MacIntel when the time comes, which the developers might even like.

Sadly Apple hasn't done any of this (yet). That's why I feel Jobs did his best to "sell" to the developers during the keynote, but virtually nothing to "sell" to us hardware/software buyers.

This can actually spur the "Osbourne" effect as people wait for a price cut or deal that may never happen.

Not doing something here is Apples biggest current marketing mistake on this issue. There's a whole bunch of folks who are going to hold off on purchase or buyer lower down on the "chain." Apple/Jobs HAS to KNOW this and they either are ok with it, actually want pent up demand to build, or they're making a mistake.

> just keep bringing the Intel Macs on as soon as possible
> they'll be fine. Remember the sales drought they had when the
> G4s were getting old, and the G5's had not arrived yet. That
> will probably be more painful for Apple than the new effect of
> announcing Intels in Mac.

Again, I think moving to Intel is a SMART move. I think getting the developers ready a year or two in advance is GREAT.

Apple not handling the "Osbourne" effect is a BAD mistake or, at least, bad for me, a ready - to - part - with - thousands - of - dollars - customer.

>
> Graeme
>

Craig Seeman

Craig - good stuff there! I really agree that price drops will become necessary as less and less people buy new macs. But I don't know - they never did so in the end of the G4 years?

Graeme



[www.nattress.com] - Plugins for FCP-X

>>>Apple is giving SW companies a year to get ready, but that still means your system you buy today will need replacing, not by choice but by necessity.<<<

I don't think it's a necessity to upgrade unless you need to.

It's all a matter of perspective.

I've done film resolution work on a G3 iMac and After Effects 5. It was very slow but it was faster than the beige G3 I had beside it.

I have a friend to whom I donated my old 9600 to, he's got a Power Computing tower that he has a Media 100 card in, and still uses it.

I bought a G5 dual 2Ghz last month and upgraded to Final Cut Studio.

My previous system is a G4/400Mhz I bought back in late 2000 and FCP 2, which I hadn't used after I upgraded to OS X.

My G5 will run everything I need now, and throw in a Black Magic card HD card and RAID setup, and I'm set for a while.

Do I need to worry about what comes out with FCP 6 and beyond?? Only if I find it worth upgrading to.

There are people right now who won't upgrade to FCP 5 because they are fine with their setup.

I agree with Thomas. I suppose I could buy a G5 (I hear they're pretty fast compared with my G4), and install FCP 5. After all, I like the multicam function. Only thing is, I haven't really been editing multicamera shoots. It's also great that it handles HDV natively, but then again, I don't shoot on HDV, nor have I had to work with it. Of course Soundtrack Pro would be nice, but I've got a solution in place for editing music and sound when I need to. It's not as elegant, but it works fine.

My point is that I finally upgraded to a G4 dual 1.25 gHz and FCP 4.5 when I felt that the benefits of the new system/software outweighed the cost. Until then, I had been quite happily editing on a G4 400mHz and FCP 3 with OS 9 (aaahhh, memories. What a great system that was.)

I try not to miss what I do not have, and I try not to "keep up with the Joneses". I will not even notice a difference with the Intel chips when I finally need to upgrade. I will not notice any problems with Mac software since I'm not buying new software every 6 months and won't have to worry about compatibility. And as far as backwards compatibility and this "Rosetta" I read about, I suspect I will do what I did when I eventually upgraded to OSX. I replaced my outdated software, slowly, and when I needed to. If Photoshop CS3 will only be compatible with Intel Macs, so be it. Photoshop CS works great right now.

Andy